I like John C. Dvorak. I’ve been watching him ramble on about stuff since I was a kid watching Silicon Spin on ZDtv. Still, it never ceases to amaze me with some of the things he comes up with. He’s kind of like the Lewis Black of the Tech Industry…but…ya know…not as funny.
His latest Marketwatch column tells readers that Apple should get out of the phone market “before it’s too late.” He doesn’t believe that the iPhone can succeed in such a crowded market, with such low profit margins. He also doesn’t think that Apple can update the device enough to keep it “cool” with consumers.
His final suggestion is for Apple to call the device a “reference design” and pass it to some “suckers” to get the thing built.
Now, let’s set the fanboy insanity aside for a minute that immediately makes some of you want to call for his head on a pike. Instead, let’s talk about what he’s suggesting.
Dvorak’s opinion is that the iPhone won’t be a success, and that it won’t be able to stay “cool”. He says in the article that the only reason the iPod worked is because there wasn’t anyone doing a good job in the MP3 player market…and Apple advertised…
My opinion is that the iPod succeeded because it was a fantastic design that was unlike anything that had come before it. It was easier to user than any MP3 player that had ever been built, and continues to lead the industry to this day. It got people talking, and competitors jumping to get on the bandwagon.
Now let’s look at the iPhone. It was announced in January. Since then, there have been over 1 million customer inquiries to At&t, and Motorola executives have thrown hissy fits about having to answer so many questions about it…why? Because Apple got people talking…again. Just like the iPod, they have also produced a device that doesn’t appear to be like any other phone out there…mainly for the iPod and Internet features.
The iPhone is going to succeed, and I feel like I’m a better judge for this than the guys in Silicon Valley…as I think any of us that live outside that “tech bubble” are. Here, where people don’t even know the difference between cellphone carriers except for their names, people are fascinated about the iPhone. Friends and family have been coming up to me since the day of the announcement wanting to know more about it. People WANT this product. As long as it is well made, and functions as promised, the iPhone is going to be a HUGE hit…and will make a BIG impact on the cell phone industry.