Dvorak thinks Apple should dump the iPhone “before it’s too late”

I like John C. Dvorak. I’ve been watching him ramble on about stuff since I was a kid watching Silicon Spin on ZDtv. Still, it never ceases to amaze me with some of the things he comes up with. He’s kind of like the Lewis Black of the Tech Industry…but…ya know…not as funny.

His latest Marketwatch column tells readers that Apple should get out of the phone market “before it’s too late.” He doesn’t believe that the iPhone can succeed in such a crowded market, with such low profit margins. He also doesn’t think that Apple can update the device enough to keep it “cool” with consumers.

His final suggestion is for Apple to call the device a “reference design” and pass it to some “suckers” to get the thing built.

Now, let’s set the fanboy insanity aside for a minute that immediately makes some of you want to call for his head on a pike. Instead, let’s talk about what he’s suggesting.

Dvorak’s opinion is that the iPhone won’t be a success, and that it won’t be able to stay “cool”. He says in the article that the only reason the iPod worked is because there wasn’t anyone doing a good job in the MP3 player market…and Apple advertised…

My opinion is that the iPod succeeded because it was a fantastic design that was unlike anything that had come before it. It was easier to user than any MP3 player that had ever been built, and continues to lead the industry to this day. It got people talking, and competitors jumping to get on the bandwagon.

Now let’s look at the iPhone. It was announced in January. Since then, there have been over 1 million customer inquiries to At&t, and Motorola executives have thrown hissy fits about having to answer so many questions about it…why? Because Apple got people talking…again. Just like the iPod, they have also produced a device that doesn’t appear to be like any other phone out there…mainly for the iPod and Internet features.

The iPhone is going to succeed, and I feel like I’m a better judge for this than the guys in Silicon Valley…as I think any of us that live outside that “tech bubble” are. Here, where people don’t even know the difference between cellphone carriers except for their names, people are fascinated about the iPhone. Friends and family have been coming up to me since the day of the announcement wanting to know more about it. People WANT this product. As long as it is well made, and functions as promised, the iPhone is going to be a HUGE hit…and will make a BIG impact on the cell phone industry.

Comments

  1. WillGonz says:

    Well AT&T is reporting 1 million inquires on the iPhone. So people must be interested. I’m sure there was tons of bad mouthing when Apple introduced the iPod. But look at its success.

    John C. Dvorak is an old fart, he should retire.

  2. Dvorak probably doesn’t believe any of this as fervently as his article would apply. It’s just that cautiously worded opinions don’t sell.

    Something he (and many others) may believe is that the cellphone market is not as crummy and filled with dissatisfied consumers as the mp3 player market was. They also have the classic anti-Apple attitude of equating the number of features – even if they are as lousy as FM reception and cheesy games – with user appeal.

    Short of some catastrophic failure by Apple, such as missing the June deadline by months, or all the iPhones crapping out after 2 weeks of use, nothing can stop it from becoming exactly as popular as Steve imagines.

  3. Bryan Gibson says:

    The only thing about the iPhone that Apple should dump is the name. They renamed iTV to AppleTV, why not do the same with the phone. Isn’t everyone tired of all of these companies trying to capitalize on the iName trend? I saw a water bottle of all things bundled with a nano sleeve called the iQuench…now come on!

    Anyway, I concur–Dvorak is smoking Dvorcrack if he thinks the iPhone won’t be popular. Maybe a smaller price point, but I guess if you look at what you’re getting (4 devices in one, or something like that)…

  4. Completely agree Mike. The iPhone will be a big hit, not because of the technology (hardware) granted thats awesome too, but I think mainly because of the OS. If Apple can really nail the mobile OS like they appear to have I think it will send a shockwave through the industry and hopefully we can see MS and everyone else coming out with more user friendly mobile OS’ Apple has perfected OSX being one of the most advanced os’ (if not being it) and at the same time made it one of the easiest to use. As long as they keep their software cutting edge as it is, the iPhone is going to blow up like the iPod did.

  5. John Boyce says:

    Dvorack is lonely and looking for attention. There is NO WAY he actually believes 1/2 of the stuff he writes. It’s a joke, folks. He was actually #3 on the iPhone request list behind Bill Gates and Michael Dell.

  6. Is this the same Dvorack who said that Macs were toys?
    Is this the same Dvorack who said that iPod were just another mp3?

    Mmm… i see a pattern here.

    This guy is like that funny old man who farts every 10 minutes. You don’t like it, but you have to go pass him and smell it…

  7. Jim Royal says:

    Dvorak has stated openly that he doesn’t actually believe the things he writes about Apple. He has said himself that he simple makes outrageous statements about Apple in order to get page views.

    As such, he’s not a journalist nor even a pundit. He’s a troll, whose M.O. consists mainly of shouting “Look at me!”

    The best thing you can do for the tech community is to never link to one of his articles again.

  8. Tenacious MC says:

    I think the tech industry should dump Dvorak “before it’s too late”.

  9. Given Dvorák’s track record you can now guarantee the iPhone will be a success…

    I have owned a number of “good” cellphones and I have found them universally frustrating. Lots of features, few used because they are such a pain to use because of the crap OS/UI. Apple knows UI, the phone will rock.

    My 80 year old father who seldom uses his cellphone was extremely interested in the iPhone when shown the keynote on Apple’s site.

    As long as Apple delivers they have a winner.

  10. David Macdonald says:

    I think the iPhone will be as successful as the Newton.

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